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知名 Linux 产商 RedHat 的高级软件工程经理、GNOME/Fedora 的开发者 Christian Schaller ，近日发文对即将到来的 2018 年发表了一些有趣、大胆的预测，其观点也引发了社区争议。
Schaller 认为，2018 年苹果在 PC 端逐渐没落，而 Linux 将有新的突破： 1.Linux 社区会基本使用 Meson 作为构建系统。 2.Rust 主攻低级编程以取代 C / C ++。 3.苹果在 PC 端逐渐没落。 4.用于桌面应用的传统 Linux 分发包技术被 Flatpak 取代。 5.Linux 图形支持大突破，到 2018 年底 Aspyr 和 Feral 在 Linux 上的游戏表现有望向 Windows 看齐。 6.H.265 格式被认为是失败的，所有新的编解码器都将开源或免版税。 7.以上预测将非常的准，因为 Linux 在云服务器上的巨大优势已非常明显，这将影响众多方面的推动着 Linux 的发展。
英语原文：Some predictions for 2018 So I spent a few hours polishing my crystal ball today, so here are some predictions for Linux on the Desktop in 2018. The advantage of course for me to publish these now is that I can then later selectively quote the ones I got right to prove my brilliance and the internet can selectively quote the ones I got wrong to prove my stupidity. Prediction 1: Meson becomes the defacto build system of the Linux community Meson has been going from strength to strength this year and a lot of projects which passed on earlier attempts to replace autotools has adopted it. I predict this trend will continue in 2018 and that by the end of the year everyone agrees that Meson has replaced autotools as the Linux community build system of choice. That said I am not convinced the Linux kernel itself will adopt Meson in 2018. Prediction 2: Rust puts itself on a clear trajectory to replace C and C++ for low level programming Another rising start of 2017 is the programming language Rust. And while its pace of adoption will be slower than Meson I do believe that by the time 2018 comes to a close the general opinion is that Rust is the future of low level programming, replacing old favorites like C and C++. Major projects like GNOME and GStreamer are already adopting Rust at a rapid pace and I believe even more projects will join them in 2018. Prediction 3: Apples decline as a PC vendor becomes obvious Ever since Steve Jobs died it has become quite clear in my opinion that the emphasis on the traditional desktop is fading from Apple. The pace of hardware refreshes seems to be slowing and MacOS X seems to be going more and more stale. Some pundits have already started pointing this out and I predict that in 2018 Apple will be no longer consider the cool kid on the block for people looking for laptops, especially among the tech savvy crowd. Hopefully a good opportunity for Linux on the desktop to assert itself more. Prediction 4: Traditional distro packaging for desktop applications will start fading away in favour of Flatpak From where I am standing I think 2018 will be the breakout year for Flatpak as a replacement for gettings your desktop applications as RPMS or debs. I predict that by the end of 2018 more or less every Linux Desktop user will be at least running 1 flatpak on their system. Prediction 5: Linux Graphics competitive across the board I think 2018 will be a breakout year for Linux graphics support. I think our GPU drivers and API will be competitive with any other platform both in completeness and performance. So by the end of 2018 I predict that you will see Linux game ports by major porting houses like Aspyr and Feral that perform just as well as their Windows counterparts. What is more I also predict that by the end of 2018 discreet graphics will be considered a solved problem on Linux. Prediction 6: H265 will be considered a failure I predict that by the end of 2018 H265 will be considered a failed codec effort and the era of royalty bearing media codecs will effectively start coming to and end. H264 will be considered the last successful royalty bearing codec and all new codecs coming out will all be open source and royalty free.
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